— aleatory

All Roads Lead South?

Fund Managers

Todd Harrison


It’s difficult to argue

– Harrison for his part always likes to see both sides of the tape, but I think he’s worried this time he’s not being cautious, merely stating the obvious.

– The RBS analyst Bob Janjuah predicted the beginnings of the credit crunch.

– The accepted knowledge is to buy when things seem at their worst. This however assumes a nice clean bounce back. What we’re looking at here has been brewing since we were bought out (on credit) of the tech bubble and relied on the tiger economies to prop up a stagnant Developed world economy. In the long term, the West will in relative terms get poorer. The population is getting older, growth will no longer receive outside stimuli. Leading stocks do not as yet have the global presence to be immune from this inevitability.

How low can it go?

On another note, US crude inventories just declined for a 5th straight week – and the front month contract still managed to drop on the news. With the market saying recent buying towards the $140 mark didn’t come from trade buyers, it’s looking like another bubble is about to burst.

Update: Looks like the penny’s dropped in the savvy quarters. The diplomatic way of saying growth now for corporations lays outside US borders

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