Just thought I’d call a spade a spade. At the moment the best way of measuring whether or not commentators believe we’re in the midst of a depression seems to be how often they fail to refer to it as a recession.
Anyway on the subject of blogging on the markets in general, it’s not often I allow myself the opportunity to comment on the daily financial noise, so when I do it’s with the intention of pointing out that the general short term outlook of those who should know better is more or less completely at odds with long term, set-in-stone realities. And it seems even those who do know better are unable to see any other way out of it:
The rise in debt eventually will lead to slower economic growth and diminished standards of living in the U.S
Allan Sinai, chief economist Decision Economics
Nevertheless he supports the Obama stimulus plan. I have a ‘meh’ attitude to all the political hubris surrounding the market today, but I can’t understand all his talk of building for the future when his policies will result in a poorer US tomorrow.
Another noteworthy individual coming from the ‘knows better but doesn’t appear to think there’s anything else for it’ stable is George Soros. He has been expounding exactly what circumstances the US finds itself in, but his solution seems to be to throw more public debt at it. Puzzling.
To put this into perspective, take a look at the ‘Some Inconvenient Truths’ paper causing a stir amongst the more savvy market commentaries. A depression of between 3 – 7 years. Note the FT writer covering the story was equally unable to decide on the state of the economy – the two tags she decided on to accompany the story? Depression and recession.