— aleatory

GM’s Bankruptcy and a Prediction Market Success

At the beginning of March I started a market on whether GM would go bankrupt before Citi came under a majority government ownership. At the time I felt it would be GM and straight away the (somewhat low volume) prediction market over at inklingmarkets.com seemed to back that up.

No movement on it today after the government announcement is a strange one. I’d rate the likelihood of a GM ‘win’ much more likely now, but then I guess Inkling as a venue doesn’t have the reach of the other more established virtual platforms. Still I’m recording this as a win for the insight prediction markets can offer.

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