
On Friday I questioned the validity of relying on a single, relatively unreliable and untested measure as a leading indicator. At the risk of sounding like an economist that is not to say I disagree with the conclusions made.
Indeed watching the UK consumers’ response to their emergency ‘austerity’ budget may be a useful predictor for the likely US retrenchment, whenever Obama decides (or more likely, is forced) to follow suit.
Though rather than being a function of the consumer, there is a case to be made that the next major index movement will come from a government’s inability to pay it’s bills and hence stopping the stimulus-led consumer ‘growth’ story in it’s tracks.
Continue reading ‘Debt Disconnect’
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