GM’s Bankruptcy and a Prediction Market Success

rutherford — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 16:37:07 +0000

At the beginning of March I started a market on whether GM would go bankrupt before Citi came under a majority government ownership. At the time I felt it would be GM and straight away the (somewhat low volume) prediction market over at inklingmarkets.com seemed to back that up.

No movement on it today after the government announcement is a strange one. I’d rate the likelihood of a GM ‘win’ much more likely now, but then I guess Inkling as a venue doesn’t have the reach of the other more established virtual platforms. Still I’m recording this as a win for the insight prediction markets can offer.

Citi Vs GM: First to Fail

rutherford — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 00:51:38 +0000

The thought also occurred in my head this week – “Citi Vs GM: First to Fail?” Before giving myself a hefty slap across the face and a “GM you dumbass!” sardonic response. A fairer question would be “will GM go bankrupt before Citi’s controlling shareholder is the US government?”.

Either way it’s the public who will be getting nasty over this. A lot more of them are gainfully employed in America’s flagship car wreck than in America’s flagship bad loan. Stand by for a surge in social unrest somewhere in the West in the next few years. Events elsewhere will only serve to stoke things further. My bet isn’t entirely against America on this one.

Here’s what the market thinks:

aleatory » Prediction Markets

GM’s Bankruptcy and a Prediction Market Success

Citi Vs GM: First to Fail